About the Economy blog

There is a constant refrain out there that American consumers are running up big credit card tabs to fuel an unsustainable spending spree. The only problem is it's dead wrong. The balance of revolving credit not secured by real estate—primarily credit cards—has declined over the past several years when measured against disposable personal income. The credit to income ratio is now 5.7, compared with 6.1 in mid-2024. Non-revolving credit for things like autos, recreational vehi

Consumer spending has held up surprisingly well even as labor markets have cooled and sentiment has plumbed record lows. After slowing earlier this year it has once again firmed in recent months. Why? At least part of the story is the rise in household wealth over the past few years.

A little less than a year ago, I published a post explaining why the US economy was clearly NOT in a recession , despite contrary claims...

We won't know for some time the tariff effects on inflation. The consumer price index rose a modest 0.2% in February, a sharp step down...

Stronger-than-expected job growth, but unemployment virtually unchanged. Markets are in a dither this morning because of concerns that a...

Also a U HERO blog post . Immigrants have always been an important part of America’s population. But for just as long there have been...

The US economy is not in recession. In this LinkedIn and UHERO article, I illustrate this by comparing the current situation to a past...

by Byron Gangnes COVID's aftermath brought soaring inflation to Japan, a country that averaged less than 0.2% inflation between 1995 and...

UHERO blog post: The US economy surprised to the upside last year. Inflation receded rapidly without large-scale labor market pain. In...