Analysis

Hawaii’s economy must weather a new storm. The Iran war has sent oil prices surging, promising to raise inflation, increase travel costs, and slow our major visitor markets. While an outright contraction looks unlikely, the near-term outlook has materially worsened.

May 15, 2026

Immigrants are an important part of America. But there have long been concerns about their impact. The immigration “surge” and the Donald Trump candidacy animated a backlash against immigration. What do we know about the economic effects of US immigration?

January 31, 2025

Maui will only gradually recover from the wildfires, but the other counties will have favorable conditions. Hawaii’s trend growth will be slower than in the past because of limited population and labor force growth.

September 20, 2024

A year ago, I published a post explaining why the US economy was clearly NOT in a recession, despite contrary claims and the pain experienced by some families. Now there are signs that we may be flirting with a recession. What am I watching most closely?

September 6, 2025

Hawaii’s economic expansion continues. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. We will see a short-term boost to tourism and local incomes, but medium-term supply side challenges and an uptick in inflation.

December 13, 2024

Soaring inflation and weak exports have undercut Japanese growth. Where do things stand at present, and what is the likely path forward in the near term and longer run?

May 21, 2024

Hawaii’s outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as federal policy shifts look poised to tip the economy into a mild recession. Sharply higher US tariffs are worsening the business outlook in Hawaii’s visitor-dependent economy, and increase inflation risks.

May 9, 2025

Try to tell people that we are not in a recession and they will disagree. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. But a recession is a very particular thing.

September 26, 2024

Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace. Maui rebuilding and the return of international travelers will support tourism, and robust construction will continue.

May 10, 2024