Analysis
Would we be in recession without AI? Investment, imports, and the stock-market wealth effect
“Without the AI boom, we probably would be in a recession.” I keep hearing this. Is it true? The AI buildout has fueled a boom in computer equipment and software investment. The stock market surge has raised wealth and consumer spending. But how big are these effects?
October 21, 2026
War brings more stormy weather to Hawaii.
Hawaii’s economy must weather a new storm. The Iran war has sent oil prices surging, promising to raise inflation, increase travel costs, and slow our major visitor markets. While an outright contraction looks unlikely, the near-term outlook has materially worsened.
May 15, 2026
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: No respite from storms or oil prices
Hawai‘i’s economy has slowed this year under the weight of war-driven oil prices and an unusually active storm season. Real GDP growth will fall to about half a percent in 2026, from more than 3% last year. We expect gradual relief as energy prices ease in 2027.
September 25, 2026
Recession watch: Is a downturn imminent?
A year ago, I published a post explaining why the US economy was clearly NOT in a recession, despite contrary claims and the pain experienced by some families. Now there are signs that we may be flirting with a recession. What am I watching most closely?
September 6, 2025
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom
Hawaii’s economic expansion continues. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. We will see a short-term boost to tourism and local incomes, but medium-term supply side challenges and an uptick in inflation.
December 13, 2024
America’s housing affordability challenge: How big and how broad?
We’ve heard lots about the unaffordability of housing. How widespread is it and how extreme? Aside from prices relative to income, what does a model of affordability tell us about differences and recent US. trends? What's different this time around?
July 2, 2026
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Federal policies push Hawaii toward mild recession
Hawaii’s outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as federal policy shifts look poised to tip the economy into a mild recession. Sharply higher US tariffs are worsening the business outlook in Hawaii’s visitor-dependent economy, and increase inflation risks.
May 9, 2025
How I know we’re Not in a Recession. (And when we’ll know if we are.)
Try to tell people that we are not in a recession and they will disagree. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. But a recession is a very particular thing.
September 26, 2024
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