Would we be in a recession without AI?

Investment, imports, and the stock market wealth effect

"Without the AI boom, we probably would be in a recession.”

I keep hearing this. Is it true?

The AI infrastructure buildout has partly offset weak construction and fueled a boom in computer equipment and software investment. And the AI-powered stock market surge has raised household wealth and, with it, consumer spending.

But just how big are these effects? This depends on the actual amount of AI-related construction, where AI equipment is sourced, and the consumer response to stock market wealth gains.

Without them, would the US economy be in a recession, or would underlying growth have been strong enough to keep us out of one?

Read the full analysis in this UHERO insight.