Analysis

Hawaii has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and a glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key markets will cause slowing in 2024.

December 15, 2023

The tragic Maui wildfires have inflicted deep pain and loss. There are also economic costs for the county and the state as a whole, many of which will last well into the future.

September 22, 2023

Stock prices are at a very high level, and yet investors have not pulled back. What gives? How should we think about stock market values? ...

July 21, 2023

What is the US economy's "speed limit?" How will it change in coming years, and might it be increased? What does the speed limit tell us about pending unemployment change?

November 8, 2023

A number of factors are driving Maui jobless claims higher. Together, they add up to a staggering hit to Maui County employment.

September 7, 2023

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply over the past fifteen months, and Fed officials have signaled that perhaps two more quarter point hikes are coming...

July 13, 2023

Credit card balances broke the $1 trillion mark recently, but their share of income is moderate by historical standards. But the surge in interest rates means the burden is rising.

September 28, 2023

In this report we try to identify the scope and scale of the wildfires’ impacts and lay out in broad terms key areas of challenge that will need to be addressed.

August 31, 2023

The Fed’s war on inflation has been underway for more than a year. Interest rates have been driven up sharply, with consequences...

May 26, 2023