Analysis

Maui will only gradually recover from the wildfires, but the other counties will have favorable conditions. Hawaii’s trend growth will be slower than in the past because of limited population and labor force growth.

September 20, 2024

Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year.

February 23, 2024

Hawaii has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and a glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key markets will cause slowing in 2024.

December 15, 2023

Soaring inflation and weak exports have undercut Japanese growth. Where do things stand at present, and what is the likely path forward in the near term and longer run?

May 21, 2024

US inflation receded rapidly in 2023 without large-scale labor market pain. In part this reflects growth in the supply side of the economy. How might artificial intelligence (AI) and other factors affect US growth over the long term?

February 21, 2024

What is the US economy's "speed limit?" How will it change in coming years, and might it be increased? What does the speed limit tell us about pending unemployment change?

November 8, 2023

Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace. Maui rebuilding and the return of international travelers will support tourism, and robust construction will continue.

May 10, 2024

Financial markets expect many more interest rate cuts this year than does the Fed. Could the markets be right? What would have to happen for the Fed to cut rates that much in 2024?

January 19, 2024

Credit card balances broke the $1 trillion mark recently, but their share of income is moderate by historical standards. But the surge in interest rates means the burden is rising.

September 28, 2023